"S&P 500 ends at another record after strong jobs data," is the Reuters headline for their summary of Friday's market action. It's an interesting choice of words considering that this record is a mere technicality on the scale of 1.01 points, or in percentage terms, a move of 0.05%. True, the index performance is noteworthy against the fundamental headwind of a slowly escalating crisis in Ukraine, a situation that appears more than likely to worsen, not the other way around. So why the enthusiasm? Has the threat of armed conflict already been priced in to the equities?
Many will cite, as did this Reuters article, that a positive jobs report released by the U.S. Labor Department, exceeded expectations by hitting 175,000, a surprise of +17%. It's always good to know that Taco Bell is apparently on another hiring binge and that just might be the problem. I don't think anyone is buying the economic recovery story simply based on a jobs number that is subject to all sorts of statistical manipulation. Besides, how confident can we be if the entire nation is up in arms regarding the raising of the federal minimum wage? While I'm not discussing yay or nay in this blog entry, it should be pointed that if everything was going fine, the minimum wage debate wouldn't conjure up such passionate discourse.
But the real reason I'm not buying into anything the Street says about the economy is because the professional money has obviously left the playing field. We emphasize the theme "Go with the Money" because you certainly don't want to fight the money : wherever the professionals go, whatever they do, that's probably a very solid starting point for your own personal strategy. The professionals always want you buying and staying in the markets since they occupy the opposite side of the trade. It's just simple survival reflexes that if you want to be around for mating season, you want to trade with the big money, not against it.
And with such a small margin of "victory" today, they've found something else to do besides risking exposure to a potentially volatile situation.
Many will cite, as did this Reuters article, that a positive jobs report released by the U.S. Labor Department, exceeded expectations by hitting 175,000, a surprise of +17%. It's always good to know that Taco Bell is apparently on another hiring binge and that just might be the problem. I don't think anyone is buying the economic recovery story simply based on a jobs number that is subject to all sorts of statistical manipulation. Besides, how confident can we be if the entire nation is up in arms regarding the raising of the federal minimum wage? While I'm not discussing yay or nay in this blog entry, it should be pointed that if everything was going fine, the minimum wage debate wouldn't conjure up such passionate discourse.
But the real reason I'm not buying into anything the Street says about the economy is because the professional money has obviously left the playing field. We emphasize the theme "Go with the Money" because you certainly don't want to fight the money : wherever the professionals go, whatever they do, that's probably a very solid starting point for your own personal strategy. The professionals always want you buying and staying in the markets since they occupy the opposite side of the trade. It's just simple survival reflexes that if you want to be around for mating season, you want to trade with the big money, not against it.
And with such a small margin of "victory" today, they've found something else to do besides risking exposure to a potentially volatile situation.
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