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And Yet Another Reason...

3/22/2014

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In an expired Yahoo Finance poll which asked readers how they were handling the current volatility in the domestic equities sector, 56% of respondents answered that they were "buying the dips" while only 18% were selling out of the markets, with the remainder (27%) saying that they were staying in cash. Personally, I found the results surprising not from a fundamental assumption of investor sentiment (since the Wall Street marketing albatross always advertises that "every day is a buying opportunity" so one can expect a large contingency of the investing public to participate in the markets, come hell or high water...) but from the sourcing dilemma. The majority of participants are likely Yahoo commentators, the most invalid of the intellectually deficient, a giant step backward from the sewage pipe otherwise known as YouTube.

The comments section of most Yahoo articles regardless of content is home to some of the most vile vitriol, a pathetic attempt by otherwise able-minded individuals to compensate for their apathetic, self-induced retardation. But these are the honest ones : when someone deliberately makes poor choices in their personal life and then proceeds to lash out at the government (or some other entity like an ethnic group different from their own), we immediately recognize such individuals as losers, not because they are inherently so, but that they have transformed as such by their own free will.

The real problem with Yahoo commentators is the rise of the Google Savant, or a cognitively deficient person who relies on search-engine skills and copy-and-paste mechanisms in lieu of appropriate context. Information is just a static element : the application of information is the true power, but one that requires a considerable investment of time and effort. The GS sidesteps this important process by reproducing another's work without vetting the work or the source. This is why so many Yahoo comments have the pretense of intellect but upon closer examination revealing a more mundane truth.

That so many of the GS believe in buying the dips suggest that this may be the beginning of the end. A GS never wants to reveal his true lack of knowledge that stems from personal apathy and therefore, will seek and reproduce any content of perceived intellectual value. If the majority of the GS community believes that dip-buying is an appropriate strategy, this indirectly credits the Wall Street machinery and their success in infiltrating the mindset of the greater public with distortion or outright lies.

The real truth that can only come from rigorous analysis and a full consideration of path-dependency, a critical component of the scientific method, reveals significant reasons to be concerned about the sustainability of domestic, large-cap equities. This goes far beyond speculation of mass human behavior,  a logical extenuation of the Weber-Fechner law in which contrarianism appears to have a favorable risk leverage. This may be so, and aligns with my own opinion, but the quantifiable realm is just as convincing. While I will not list the details on this forum, one can simply look at the first quarter performance of the S&P 500 as a strong starting point. With a return of less than 2% and with geopolitics hardly swinging in favor of stability, just how far can the stock market go?

Apparently, the Google Savant believes it can go higher still. But is that where you want to place your money?  


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